Bayesian Inference

Goal-Oriented A-Posteriori Estimation of Model Error as an Aid to Parameter Estimation

In this work, a Bayesian model calibration framework is presented that utilizes goal-oriented a-posterior error estimates in quantities of interest (QoIs) for classes of high-fidelity models characterized by PDEs. It is shown that for a large class …

Bayesian-Based Predictions of COVID-19 Evolution in Texas Using Multispecies Mixture-Theoretic Continuum Models

We consider a mixture-theoretic continuum model of the spread of COVID-19 in Texas. The model consists of multiple coupled partial differential reaction–diffusion equations governing the evolution of susceptible, exposed, infectious, recovered, and …